Like most people who really love cars, I’m a petrolhead. But us petrol heads have to accept that the internal combustion engine is on its way out (for very good environmental reasons). So, the future is electric. But some things will have to happen to make that work future work.
The electric future is arriving quickly. One sign of that is how Elon Musk, of Tesla, may well now be even richer than Jeff Bezos of Amazon, who is usually thought of as the world’s richest. Musk was worth $185bn (£136bn)1 . $1.5bn dollars more than Bezos2.
Once a small company, Tesla has reached a market value of $700bn (£516bn)1. Conventional manufacturers such as Volkswagen, Ford and General Motors are desperate for some of the market that Tesla has shown is there. These companies are spending billions in research and development for new vehicles and also electrify their existing petrol models electric. Ford decided to use the iconic brand ‘Mustang’ — synonymous with petrol driven cars — for their new electric range, the Mach E. That demonstrates the new realities in the car market.
No one even noticed what Tesla was up to as they developed their first electric car. Their first car was not for the mass market. This was the 1st generation Roadster, produced in 2008. Tesla had an interesting business model. The roadster was expensive, imperfect in many ways, and was sold only in limited numbers – the idea was simply to raise enough money to mass produce future models. These were to be the S, 3, X and Y — SEXY. The names were Musk’s idea. Revenue from the premium models S and X subsidizes the cheaper 3 and Y models. Model 3’s can now be seen on streets around the world.
Tesla seemed to get a big break when the original Roadster was reviewed on Top Gear, the most viewed television show on the planet. But Jeremy Clarkson – a notable petrolhead – was not kind to the car. Musk accused him of making the car break down and deliberately showing it in a bad light. This ended up in the courtroom, Musk suing the programme for defamation. He lost. This was a PR disaster. The Roadster’s image was of a car powered by 400 laptop batteries, neither useful nor desirable. Today, all that has changed. The new, 2nd generation Roadster is smashing every pre-order target set.
Tesla shows that people want electric cars. But the industry as a whole will have to address some key issues if they are to replicate Tesla’s success. These fall under the headings of infrastructure, energy supply, and environmental costs.
Infrastructure
The infrastructure to charge your electric car is a mess. Tesla is, once again, ahead of the game, with standardized charging ports in a great many locations – though there could be more still. They have got the technical specification right – not relying on the standard 50-60V of electrical power from other suppliers vying for a position in the market. The Tesla Supercharger network is a 480 volt system that will charge at 150Kw. That means the Model S owner could charge their car to 80% capacity in 40 minutes. However, if you own another brand of electric vehicle, you may struggle to find somewhere to charge it. Different manufacturers have different plugs, and different voltages, which only makes the situation worse. The obvious answer is to standardize charging. Every vehicle should have the same kind of plug, allowing any charging station to work on any car. A panel of independent experts made this recommendation – among 21 others – and the signs are that it might actually happen. (https://evenergytaskforce.com/) If this promise is fulfilled, we might see charging stations wherever cars sit idle for any amount of time – cinemas, for example.
Energy Supply
Electric vehicles are only as green as their electricity supply. In the UK, we are blessed with wind and coastline. According to one estimate, in ten years’ time the UK will have enough new green energy capacity to power four times the number of electric vehicles on the roads. And we have technology to help manage supply issues. There’s an app that charges your vehicle at home only when demand for power is low, saving you money and reducing stress on the national grid. We will also be able to use old car battery packs in homes to store power. This helps the environment. This may appease some that think we cannot sustain the electric future, though, the supply of electricity and the manufacturing of vehicles must come at some environmental cost.
Environmental Cost
It takes a lot of energy to make an electric car in the first place – but the typical energy cost of making an electric vehicle only equates to running an internal combustion engine for a couple of years, and this is quickly offset by the lack of tailpipe emissions. A larger 75 Kwh Tesla 3 battery emits 4.5 tonnes of CO2 when produced in Nevada, roughly equivalent to an ICE engine running for 1.4 years at 12,000 miles per annum8. When produced in China, this jumps to 7.4 tonnes of CO2 and 2.4 years.
However, Electric cars will be green when our power sources are. 35-50% of total EV manufacturing emissions arise from electricity consumption for battery production5. So, if electricity was generated by wind power alone, China would see a 50% drop in emissions from the production phase for electric vehicles5. Of course, there remains the problem of mining the rare metals used to make the batteries; 78% comes from Chile, 8% from the US and 4% from Russia8. These metal imports are somewhat of a hypocrisy when lithium demand is so high in the EU’s environmental effort to put 30 million electric vehicles on the road by 2030 9.
It would seem many of the issues concerning EVs can be resolved by hefty investment in green energy. Green energy that can be used to make and power the batteries needed for The Honda E, a retro looking small EV for green town driving. Or, more to my taste, the Lotus Evija, a 2000 horsepower hypercar that will do 0-186 mph in well under 9 seconds7. Though, the Honda will likely be more impactful.
It is certainly possible for everyone to run electric vehicles and I am looking forward to owning one. For enthusiasts, there are enough sports car manufacturers trying their hand at EVs for us to avoid getting a new hobby. The world will eventually come up with jargon for the electric powertrain which can supplement reviews in lieu of engine noise and, if we all get on with before catastrophe, enthusiasts might even be able to run our beloved ICE vehicles for a long while yet.
I would like to caveat this discussion by saying I have always had a passion for cars, primarily (ICE). Despite potentially never being able to own a naturally aspirated V12 or the even firing, screaming V10 in a Lexus LFA, the Electric Future is happening and it does have promise.
